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Prediction for CME (2023-12-31T22:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-31T22:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28422/-1
CME Note: Fast partial halo CME with protruding narrower nose, seen in SOHO C2/C3 coronagraphs (fully covered by a data gap in STEREO A beacon); associated with X5 class flare from AR13536 near East limb. Coronal signatures include narrow ejecta seen in GOES SUVI 304 starting 2023-12-31T21:44Z and a wide EUV wave in AIA 193. Possible arrival signature is characterized by sharp jumping in B tot from 5nT to just under 10nT and increases in solar wind speed (from 425 km/s to ~490 km/s), density and temperature. DSCOVR is corroborated by ACE (despite large data gaps). The initial shock is followed after 2024-01-03T16:30Z by a smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components, indicating a flux rope. An hour later there is a similar arrival signature at STEREO A. Tentatively associating this arrival with 2023-12-31T22:00Z CME. Even though this might alternatively be 2023-12-30T09:36Z CME arriving, 2023-12-31T22:00Z CME is a likelier candidate bc of high speed at L1.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-03T14:19Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-02T12:38Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.33333 - 5.33333
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -8886.62 hour(s)
Difference: 25.68 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z

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